BBI April 2024 Q&A — Boom Bust Insiders
Summary
April 2024 session reviewing market performance after the May turning point anticipated in the roadmap. Key themes: election year dynamics (incumbents spending to get re-elected, all 40+ countries holding elections), strong multi-country bull market continuing, US homebuilders near all-time highs, commodities starting to accelerate. The session covers the “Jazz Age” scenario in more detail — potential for markets to run past the 2026 real estate peak. Phil discusses Gann timing and counts from the October 2023 low into key 2024 windows.
Key Claims
| Claim | Confidence |
|---|---|
| 2024 is an election year in 40+ countries — all incumbents spending → bullish | High |
| Commodities accelerating: gold, copper, oil in uptrends consistent with late-cycle | High |
| US housing stocks continuing to confirm cycle at all-time highs | High |
| Jazz Age scenario increasingly plausible: stock market may run past 2026 land peak | Medium |
| Winner’s curse phase beginning to manifest: easy credit, no income checks, speculative behavior | High |
Predictions / Forecasts
| Forecast | Target Date | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Election year spending boosts markets through 2024 | 2024 | Confirmed |
| Commodities confirming late-cycle acceleration | 2024–2025 | Confirmed |
| Cycle peak 2026 for real estate; stocks may run longer | 2026–2027 | Pending |
Market Calls & Cycle Position Analysis
- Gold reaching all-time highs (2,500 range) confirming commodity cycle
- Copper strong on AI/data center/electric vehicle buildout demand
- Oil and energy stocks breaking out — consistent with second-half cycle
- US homebuilders continuing in strong uptrend post-all-time high break
Property & Stock Guidance
- Gold: At/near all-time highs; trending
- Copper: Structural demand from AI buildout, electrification
- Energy (XLE ETF): Breaking to highs — not just oil prices; also gas, exploration
- US homebuilders: Continue to hold/accumulate
Notable Quotes
“Incumbents in every election year do everything they can to boost the economy before election day.” — Akhil Patel
“You wouldn’t expect significant lows in 2024 if the US market holds a few months in all-time new highs.” — Phil Anderson