Summary
Phil marks the vernal equinox (March 21) as the real new year. Markets are at all-time highs one year after the 2023 lows — only PSE correctly forecast this. He notes that the real estate clock shows 14:00 (lavish government expenditure), combining with a likely K-wave peak to drive an arms race. He quotes Bloomberg on the US/China chip competition (27B chip fund). He observes the Gaza/Rafah border corruption example to illustrate that war is profitable. He warns the bigger the boom, the bigger the bust.
Key Claims
- The vernal equinox (March 21) is the correct start of the trading new year. — confidence: high
- Only PSE forecast in 2023 that markets would hit all-time highs by 2024. — confidence: high
- 14:00 on the real estate cycle clock = lavish government expenditure + arms race. — confidence: high
- US/China semiconductor competition (27B China chip fund) is cycle-consistent geopolitical spending. — confidence: high
- War is profitable; economic incentives ensure conflicts are hard to stop. — confidence: high
- Bigger the boom, bigger the bust. — confidence: high