Summary
Akhil Patel provides a detailed March 2024 roadmap update. He reflects on having spent a decade writing about the mania stage intellectually, and now living it in person. Markets are tracking the 20/60 year Dow curve. A minor top is expected in April (18 months from October 2022 low), with “sell in May” also possible 30 weeks from October 2023 low. Multiple markets (Nikkei, All Ords, gold, Bitcoin) hitting all-time highs. FOMO is spreading. Key advice: hold the trend if invested; look for range breakouts if not yet invested.
Key Claims
- Markets are tracking the 20/60 year Dow forecast curve as of March 2024. — confidence: high
- A minor top is expected in April 2024 (18 months from October 2022 low). — confidence: medium
- Late May is a potential timeframe (30 weeks from October 2023 low) for “sell in May” dynamics. — confidence: medium
- Nikkei, All Ords, gold, and Bitcoin have recently reached all-time highs. — confidence: high
- The Mania phase is now being experienced in person — mood is optimistic, FOMO spreading. — confidence: high
- Hold trend if invested; buy range breakouts if not. Avoid buying after extended runs. — confidence: high