BBI March 2024 Q&A — Boom Bust Insiders
Summary
March 2024 session. Markets have continued beyond roadmap expectations — strongly up since late January. Akhil notes colleagues at his international organization are now constantly asking about investments: “speculative enthusiasm accelerating.” Bitcoin has had a massive jump; gold is breaking out; silver is above all moving averages. PSE releases its ebook “House Prices Did What?” for the public (confirming 11 rate hike cycles with rising property). Phil discusses the roadmap for 1963–1966, 1984–1987, 2004–2007 as the best cycle analogs for 2024–2026. Key call: markets are in a new regime after breaking all-time highs — counts reset, no major retracements expected until much later.
Key Claims
| Claim | Confidence |
|---|---|
| 2024 is analogous to 1964, 1984, 2004 — last three years before cycle peak | High |
| Breaking into all-time highs AND sustaining them = new regime; previous resistance levels become support | High |
| Rising interest rates confirmed historically NOT correlated with property price declines (PSE ebook proof) | High |
| Bitcoin surge driven by dollar weakness + speculative frenzy; speculative patterns all accelerating | High |
| Markets won’t retrace significantly now after all-time high breaks — short-covering drives quick reversals | High |
Predictions / Forecasts
| Forecast | Target Date | Status |
|---|---|---|
| May 2024 is a significant turning point (30 weeks from October 2023 low, Feb 5 seasonal midpoint) | May 2024 | Confirmed |
| No major retracements in 2024–2025 (new regime) | 2024–2025 | Confirmed |
| Gold breaking to new all-time highs | 2024 | Confirmed (gold hit $2,500+ in 2024) |
| Silver to outperform gold as trend establishes | 2024–2025 | Confirmed |
| Cycle peak 2026 | 2026 | Pending |
Market Calls & Cycle Position Analysis
- Akhil: Dollar peaked October 2023; decline has begun → Bitcoin, gold, Ethereum rising
- “It’s starting to look to me like a trend” for dollar weakness
- 1963–1966 / 1984–1987 / 2004–2007: all “set and forget” for homebuilders and related stocks
- Phil: “higher it goes, the more quickly it has to fall back into the midpoint [after the peak]” — accelerating crashes possible
- March 2024: US market went up more than roadmap expected — bullish divergence
Property & Stock Guidance
- Gold: Breaking out; all-time high target
- Silver: Above all moving averages; follow silver for gold trend confirmation
- Gold miners: Some beginning to break; look for weekly breakouts
- US homebuilders (TOL, DHI, MDC): In new all-time high regime; “set and forget” for 2–3 years
- Bitcoin/Ethereum: Dollar weakness driven; speculative — don’t overleverage
- Japan Nikkei: Breaking 38,000 → generating “Japan is back” narratives globally
Notable Quotes
“The higher [the market] goes, the bigger the price difference between the prior low and the eventual top and the midpoint, and it has to get back to that midpoint in the same time frame as it’s done all the times before. Which means the higher the market goes, the more quickly it has to fall back.” — Phil Anderson
“I wouldn’t do anything silly with leverage and so on. Follow the trend. But be prepared for some kind of surprise in the next few months.” — Akhil Patel