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Summary
Phil addresses recent market volatility (30 weeks from March 15 banking issues) and pushes back against media negativity. He lists strong economic data: US GDP grew 4.9%, EPS hitting all-time highs, bank profits up globally, Germany/Japan labor shortages, aviation orders booming. He presents a US yield curve chart (2yr/10yr from 1970s) showing inversions before prior mid-cycle and cycle-end events. He predicts the yield curve inversion will reverse and stocks will march upward. He warns the 2026 turn will be initially managed as a “soft landing” narrative, fooling everyone except prepared subscribers.
Key Claims
- US GDP grew 4.9% in Q3 2023, fastest pace in 2 years. — confidence: high
- US EPS on course for all-time new highs. — confidence: high
- Yield curve inversions precede mid-cycle slowdowns and end-of-cycle crises. — confidence: high
- The yield curve will reverse its inversion and stocks will march upward. — confidence: high
- The 2026 peak/turn will initially be marketed as a “soft landing” by the Fed, misleading most investors. — confidence: high
- Interest rates rising or falling have little effect on house prices. — confidence: high
Predictions / Forecasts
- Yield curve inversion reverses; stocks resume uptrend. — status: pending
- 2026 downturn initially framed as a “soft landing” by the Fed. — status: pending