Summary
Akhil Patel provides a detailed October 2023 Roadmap update. Multiple time counts converged: Israel/Palestine war began exactly 50 years from Yom Kippur War, 36 years from 1987 crash, 181 months from Lehman Brothers, 360 weeks from Trump’s 2016 election, 60 months from the 2018 market scare. The Dow fell from August 2nd high into early October low, then bounced but fell again. The roadmap shows sideways Q3/Q4 before potential Q4 upswing. Key risk: Fed remaining tight could invert the forecast curve causing a fall into early 2024. Markets hate the uncertainty of whether the Fed will cause a recession.
Key Claims
- The October 6, 2023 Israel/Hamas conflict began exactly 50 years from the Yom Kippur War (October 1973). — confidence: high
- Multiple Gann time counts (36yr, 181mo, 360wk, 60mo) converged at the October 2023 market low. — confidence: high
- The Dow fell from August 2 high into an early October low (~6th), with a possible double bottom on October 23. — confidence: high
- Roadmap forecast curves show sideways markets through Q3/Q4 then upward moves in Q4 2023. — confidence: high
- Fed remaining tight for longer creates risk of an inverted forecast curve (fall into early 2024). — confidence: medium
- Markets hate uncertainty about Fed policy more than the geopolitical conflict itself. — confidence: high