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Summary
Akhil Patel publishes the Q3 2023 Indicators Chartbook and explains the three key areas PSE tracks: Accommodation (construction boom), Credit (bank lending expansion), and Craziness (high asset prices, collectibles, tall buildings, hedonism). The cycle remains on track. Despite turbulent months, the “X is higher than expected” media pattern reflects analysts’ lack of cycle awareness.
Key Claims
- PSE tracks three core late-cycle indicators: Accommodation, Credit, and Craziness. — confidence: high
- Accommodation: rampant construction in cheap-land areas represents a misallocation of capital driven by “builder’s illusion.” — confidence: high
- Credit: banks reverse from demanding loan criteria to pleading with customers to borrow — a precondition for crisis. — confidence: high
- Craziness: tall buildings, high collectible prices, celebrity hedonism, and extreme lifestyle spending signal cycle peak proximity. — confidence: high
- Q3 2023 Chartbook: cycle remains on track. — confidence: high
- Jelena Kojic joins the PSE team to enhance economics analysis. — confidence: high