Summary
Phil Anderson reviews the divergence between a rapidly recovering US market (particularly NASDAQ) and a stagnant Australian market following typical June tax-loss selling. He identifies several ASX stocks worth watching for trend breakouts in the second half of 2023, with emphasis on chart-based observation rather than speculative forecasting.
Key Claims
- NASDAQ recovered from March 2023 losses faster than it fell — confidence: high
- Australian markets were stagnant and experienced typical pre-end-of-June tax-loss selling — confidence: high
- The Australian market second half of 2023 may improve following the June tax-loss selling period — confidence: medium
- US housing starts and new housing sector outperformed consensus expectations — confidence: high (Anderson claims he anticipated this)
- MIN (Mineral Resources) often reverses trend mid-year based on historical pattern — confidence: medium
- The primary action in mid-2023 has been in US markets, not Australian — confidence: high
Mex Pete References
None.
Stock Picks / Signals
- GNG (GR Engineering Services Ltd, ASX) — Watching for continuation of uptrend; a break into all-time new highs considered bullish. No buy recommendation; chart observation only.
- JHX (James Hardie Industries, ASX) — No chart provided; US side of business expected to outperform driven by US housing sector strength. No buy recommendation.
- ILU (Iluka Resources Ltd, ASX) — Chart included; flagged as a stock to watch. No explicit signal given.
- LYC (Lynas Rare Earths, ASX) — Flagged due to rare earths sector interest. No explicit signal given.
- MIN (Mineral Resources, ASX) — At ~50% retracement sitting on past highs; historical mid-year trend reversal pattern noted. Watch only; no buy recommendation.
Predictions / Forecasts
- Australian market likely to see a better second half of 2023 following June tax-loss selling pressure.
- US housing sector expected to continue outperforming consensus expectations, benefiting JHX.
Notable Quotes
“This is what I watch for: trying to get onto a trend. And not guessing.”
“These are not buy recommendations, just how I look at things with charts. It’s up to you to assert your own view. And then accept responsibility for the decision.”