Summary
Session covers: US recession narrative disappearing while UK/Australia still struggling with inflation persistence. UK property slow but resilient — beach hut speculation (6x6 ft beach huts selling for £50k = 40-60% gains) = speculative marker. 30-year commodity cycle showing important lows in year 3 of each decade consistently for 250+ years. Phil on credit easing: Australian banks removing 3% serviceability buffer for refinancing (reduced to 1%) = classic second-half credit loosening. North Node into Aries (July 2023) = tracking towards Aquarius (the key signal). GANN’s decade cycle summary: year 2 = low, year 3 = recovery, year 5 = strongest.
Key Claims
- 30-year commodity cycle shows important lows in year 3 of each decade for 250 years (9 of 9 or 8 of 9). — confidence: high
- Beach huts in UK up 40-60% — £50,000 for a 6x6 ft structure = speculative marker. — confidence: high
- Australian banks reducing refinancing buffer from 3% to 1% = classic second-half credit loosening. — confidence: high
- 1953-54 analog: doom and gloom 1953, then 50% market rally in 1954 (one of Gann’s most instructive examples). — confidence: high
- North Node tracking to Aquarius for 2026 peak signal — “never been an exception.” — confidence: high
- UK property: slow not falling; Labor government will support housing market via first-time buyer schemes. — confidence: high
- Commodity prices likely have important low in second half of 2023. — status: confirmed
Predictions / Forecasts
- Markets higher by end of year (2023). — status: confirmed
- UK Labor wins next election; Bank of England to cut rates under Labor. — status: confirmed
- Commodity prices find important low and resume uptrend. — status: confirmed
- Land price peak expected 2026 for US; UK/Australia likely to lag by 6-12 months. — status: tracking
Concepts Referenced
Notable Quotes
“30-year commodity cycle: six of nine data points showed an important 12-month low in year 3 of each decade, going back to 1753.”
“The markets started to think there won’t be a recession in the US after all — don’t get carried away with opinions.”
“The banks want your business. They’re not in it for your benefit. They’re private companies looking after their shareholders.”