Summary
Phil Anderson introduces video Gann #5, asking whether the more ‘creative’ and expansionary phase of the real estate cycle is now approaching, drawing on Gann’s year counts. The email highlights massive global construction activity, the tendency for banks to become more profitable in the second half of the cycle, and the historical parallel of 1920s wealth creation — while noting that not all regions shared equally in that boom, with Germany and the UK as counterexamples.
Key Claims
- Large-scale construction projects (particularly in Saudi Arabia and Dubai) are already underway, consistent with the mid-to-late cycle build-out phase — confidence: high
- Banks become more profitable in the second half of the real estate cycle and will find ways to deliver affordable housing despite rising repayment burdens — confidence: medium
- The 1920s are the primary historical analog for the current period of wealth creation — confidence: high
- Not all regions participated equally in 1920s prosperity; Germany and the UK struggled, and Anderson expects a similar divergence this cycle — confidence: medium
- Anderson anticipates a repeat of ideological/political upheaval analogous to the rise of fascism in the 1920s, though not tied to Germany specifically; details deferred to a future discussion — confidence: low
Mex Pete References
None.
Stock Picks / Signals
None.
Predictions / Forecasts
- Global construction boom (already underway) expected to continue as a feature of the current cycle’s creative phase
- Some nations will not share in the broad wealth creation of this cycle, mirroring Germany and the UK’s experience in the 1920s
- A rise in politically extremist or ideologically driven movements is anticipated somewhere in the world, analogous to 1930s Europe — no specific country, timing, or market impact given
Notable Quotes
“I probably also should have pointed out, a number of parts of the world did not share in the huge wealth creation that happened in the US in the 1920’s. Germany was one area that didn’t share in a recovery out of the First World War. And the UK too, struggled in its own way, just like it will do now.”
“Indeed, the rise of Hitler came out of the 1920’s Germanic ideological struggles. I’m expecting that to repeat also, (not related to Germany) but I am going to leave that discussion to another day.”