BBI May 2023 Q&A — Boom Bust Insiders
Summary
May 2023 session. Akhil has just received advance copies of his book on publication day. Markets are in a sideways phase; US housing stocks (Toll Brothers) breaking to all-time highs are the key bullish signal. Phil visited the pyramids of Egypt with Olga Morales (planetary timing expert) and discusses the Knights Templar group they met. Key topics: Nvidia doubles earnings → stock up 25% pre-market; debt ceiling political theater (expect it to go to the wire but resolve); Phil’s strong conviction markets are about to break higher from 2023 transition to 2024–2026 boom.
Key Claims
| Claim | Confidence |
|---|---|
| Toll Brothers breaking to all-time highs = definitive signal the US housing cycle is on track | High |
| Nvidia earnings doubling (+25% pre-market) = tech earnings expansion confirming bull market | High |
| US debt ceiling debate is political theater — will be resolved before causing real crisis | High |
| Markets sideways due to uncertainty (debt ceiling, bank worries) — not due to cycle reversal | High |
| 2023 = 2003 repeat; 1982–83 repeat; after these transition years, things “really took off and caught everybody by surprise” | High |
Predictions / Forecasts
| Forecast | Target Date | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Debt ceiling will be resolved without real default | May/June 2023 | Confirmed |
| Markets will break higher once uncertainty clears | H2 2023 | Confirmed |
| Year three (2023) = transition year; years four/five will be strongly up | 2024–2025 | Confirmed |
| US housing stocks confirm strong setup for 2024–2026 | 2024–2026 | Confirmed |
Market Calls & Cycle Position Analysis
- Toll Brothers at all-time highs = “bell weather for US residential real estate — very much a sign”
- US bank stocks breaking above 12-month highs despite regional bank fears
- Japan (TOPIX) and Germany (DAX) both breaking to new highs despite “de-globalization” fears
- Phil: “it’s always been hard to divorce how you’re feeling emotionally about money loss into what the markets are actually doing”
- “By about 2025, 26 they [Trump’s base] will come in at the top. And then of course, when things turn down, they’ll blame the government again.”
Property & Stock Guidance
- Toll Brothers (TOL): All-time highs = definitive cycle confirmation
- Nvidia (NVDA): Earnings doubling; pre-market +25% — tech earnings expansion is real
- Japan (TOPIX/Nikkei): Breaking to all-time highs despite export concerns — bullish for global cycle
- Germany (DAX): New highs despite recession — market looking forward
- Homebuilders (US): All cycle-confirming; breakouts above prior highs = buy signals
- Harvey Norman (HVN.AX): Jerry Harvey says “sell everything else and buy Harvey Norman” — countercyclical buy signal; has doubled twice from this level before
Notable Quotes
“Markets climb walls of worry. They detest uncertainty. With all the worries going on in the world, markets are virtually guaranteed to go up. But they don’t like the uncertainty.” — Phil Anderson
“I suspect with the Nvidia results today and once the whole debt cycle thing the uncertainty clears, things will clear up a little bit. Everything I see is bullish.” — Phil Anderson
“Politics is one thing, but fundamentally the economy works to more significant and deeper forces.” — Akhil Patel