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Summary
Phil observes signs of the cycle’s late-stage hedonism: 100% mortgages returning in the UK (Skipton Building Society), record luxury spending (Lufthansa premium cabins, LVMH/Bernard Arnault becoming world’s richest), Chinese luxury boom. He draws explicit parallels with the Roaring 1920s, noting the gap between hedonism at the top and unaffordability at the bottom (no hot breakfasts in northern UK due to electricity costs).
Key Claims
- 100% mortgages returning in the UK signal credit expansion consistent with late-cycle behavior. — confidence: high
- Luxury spending boom (LVMH, premium travel) mirrors 1920s Roaring Twenties hedonism. — confidence: high
- Chinese luxury spending is the current cycle’s equivalent of the 1920s US boom. — confidence: high
- An economy built on credit is an economy built on sand. — confidence: high
- The gap between hedonism at the top and unaffordability at the bottom widens in the second half of the cycle. — confidence: high
Predictions / Forecasts
- Lifetime/inheritable mortgages (40-50 year terms) are likely next in the UK. — status: pending
- Commercial property may fare like 1920s US farmland — declining while urban land booms. — status: pending