Summary
Phil Anderson reviews the Dow Jones performance for 2022, noting it may finish the year near where it started — consistent with the 2022 Roadmap forecast. He then presents Virgin Money UK (ASX: VUK) as a live trade example, walking through his entry logic, stop placement, and multi-year price target in the context of the real estate cycle.
Key Claims
- The Dow Jones may finish 2022 approximately where it started — confidence: high (outcome observable)
- The 2022 Roadmap correctly anticipated this flat-year scenario — confidence: high
- Markets recovering from October 2022 lows does not mean the opportunity has been missed — confidence: medium
- At this stage of the real estate cycle, banks should be increasing earnings — confidence: medium
- VUK reporting stronger-than-expected earnings on 22 November 2022 is consistent with real estate cycle positioning — confidence: medium
- VUK could potentially return to 2018 price levels over the next couple of years — confidence: low
Mex Pete References
None.
Stock Picks / Signals
- ASX: VUK (Virgin Money UK PLC, ASX-listed)
- Signal: Buy
- Entry: Day after the 22 November 2022 gap-up earnings announcement
- Stop loss (initial): Below the prior low at time of entry
- Stop loss (as at 12 Dec 2022): Just under the red key level line, which corresponds to the high of the gap area
- Price target: Return toward 2018 highs (no specific price given)
- Timeframe: Multi-year; explicitly not a day trade
Predictions / Forecasts
- Dow Jones likely to finish 2022 close to its opening level — consistent with 2022 Roadmap
- VUK may sustain upward momentum over the next couple of years toward its 2018 price level, contingent on real estate cycle trajectory
Notable Quotes
“There’s always another train leaving the station.”
“I’m not saying this is easy but this is how I look at buying. And it’s not going to happen tomorrow. It’s a long game and I’m not a day trader.”