BBI November 2022 Q&A — Boom Bust Insiders
Summary
November 2022 session. The October low has confirmed, markets are recovering. Akhil says inflation has likely peaked; FTX collapse is the “Enron of crypto” — not involving land or bank balance sheets, so not a cycle ender. Phil makes a blistering social critique: the whole setup — COVID, lockdowns, rate hikes — has been “one big massive con” to put workers back in their place. Both reiterate the cycle is on track; the FTX debacle is a warning shot, not a systemic event. Notable for Phil’s credit expansion discussion: unsecured credit offers flooding US households are a key signal.
Key Claims
| Claim | Confidence |
|---|---|
| October 2022 was the cycle low; recovery underway | High |
| FTX collapse = 2022’s Enron: second-half cycle fraud, no land/credit involvement, not systemic | High |
| Inflation has likely peaked; Fed has overdone rate hikes | Medium |
| Unsecured credit offers flooding US households (250k with minimal checks) = classic credit expansion signal | High |
| Rate hikes are deliberate policy to “put workers back in their place” after COVID empowered labor | Medium |
| Next pivots to watch: Fed pause signals, China COVID reopening | High |
Predictions / Forecasts
| Forecast | Target Date | Status |
|---|---|---|
| October was the low; up from here | Q4 2022 | Confirmed |
| Inflation will peak and start declining in 2023 | 2023 | Confirmed |
| China will reopen from zero-COVID policy | 2022–2023 | Confirmed (Dec 2022) |
| Banks will lead next phase; watch UK/Australian banks for breakouts | 2023 | Confirmed |
| Credit taps reopening: new lenders + looser standards = classic second-half signal | 2023 | Confirmed |
Market Calls & Cycle Position Analysis
- Phil: market has had its frauds exposed; banking system back to healthy margins; credit creation is starting
- 2022 = 2002 repeat (second half of cycle year ending in two) — but 2022 is second half, 2002 was first half
- Compare: Nasdaq down 76% in 2002; Bitcoin down ~76% in 2022 — same pattern
- Australian market: test all-time new highs = “game on” for commodity prices
- Banks: VUK, Australian banks making higher lows → earnings improving → breakout signal
- 2029: Gann counts point to “awesomely bad year” — 7+36 year counts from 2022
Property & Stock Guidance
- Banks (US/UK/Aus): Breakouts forming; accumulate on new highs
- VUK (Virgin UK): Listed in Australia; gap-up on earnings beat = bullish
- Australian REITs: Bottomed in September — leading the broader market
- US housing: Median price going up (460k in 2022 despite all the negative talk)
- Homebuilders (US): D.R. Horton making higher lows; watch for breakouts
Notable Quotes
“The last few months, particularly a good deal of this year, has just been one big massive con. And I’m astounded that more people don’t see through it.” — Phil Anderson
“This is a classic mid-cycle play and it happens when interest rates go up because that’s when the pressure starts to bear on things. There’s no credit involved and there’s no land value involved.” — Phil Anderson (on FTX)
“The only way I’ve ever found to do that [filter propaganda] is to try and at least have some sort of semblance of an understanding of a chart.” — Phil Anderson