Summary
Phil Anderson notes the October 2022 low arrived as forecast, comparing 2022 market action favorably to the 2002, 1982, and 1962 mid-cycle lows. He declares it is time to buy back in, highlights the potential USD turning point, and provides geopolitical commentary on Putin, China, and how government stimulus is offsetting Fed rate hikes.
Key Claims
- October 2022 low arrived as forecast — Gann timing vindicated again
- 2022 market action is “normal” compared to mid-cycle lows in 2002, 1982, and 1962
- 2002 was actually worse: NASDAQ fell ~80% and US military actions in Afghanistan/Iraq looked like WWIII
- It is now time to buy back in; stocks with highest lows relative to June are strongest
- US Dollar showing signs of topping — a USD reversal would give second half cycle major added impetus
- Interest rate rises appear overdone; governments offsetting with tax cuts and energy rebates (making combined policy incoherent)
- Putin is “finished” — war trajectory changed at 180 days, confirmed at 30-week mark
- China’s 20th Party Congress Oct 16 will free Xi to change COVID policy; China will return to higher growth
- Dubai relaunching Palm Jebel Ali (halted since 2009) — classic late-cycle real estate excess signal
- Planetary energy change suggested for October 6