BBI Gold Coast Session Part 3 — Boom Bust Insiders Live
Summary
Final part of the Gold Coast live session. Phil focuses on practical investment application: how to read a chart (Gann’s “Through the Stock Tape”), how rising earnings drive stock prices, and why crypto and government control are linked. Covers the post-cycle scenarios: what governments do after the crash (spend on infrastructure, create new credit), why each bust is eventually followed by a new cycle. Also covers short-selling and why Phil prefers “not choosing bad stocks” over going short. The session closes with an extended Q&A.
Key Claims
| Claim | Confidence |
|---|---|
| Gann’s method for reading stocks: higher tops, higher bottoms = strong stock; lower lows = avoid | High |
| The government will eventually target crypto as taxable asset — “could government steal your crypto?” is real risk | Medium |
| After each bust, governments create massive new spending programs → new cycle begins | High |
| Australia’s biggest developer has 900+ sales ahead of instruction (2022) — no slowdown | High |
| The real estate cycle doesn’t eliminate during wars (except existential ones) — continues through conflicts | High |
Q&A Key Points
Q: Can the government steal crypto? A: “After the next land price collapse, when governments are desperately looking for revenue, crypto will have a target on its back. That’s the risk.”
Q: Should I sell my property in 2026 and buy back after the crash? A: “Not necessarily. In an inflationary environment, nominal prices might not fall much. Don’t try to be too smart.”
Q: What about China’s property market problems? A: “China is shifting from property-led growth to consumption-led growth — like Japan in the 1980s. That model has risks.”
Q: How do you short stocks? A: “I mostly don’t. The easiest thing is to just never choose bad stocks. Making sure you’re onto the good ones is the simpler skill.”
On the post-2026 scenario:
- Belt and Road Initiative will fail when global land prices drop
- China property is already showing cracks
- The cycle has always been followed by another cycle; 2040s will bring the next low
- Australia benefits from resources in the next recovery
Property & Stock Guidance
- Practical takeaway: Know the cycle phase; buy quality earnings-growing stocks at cycle lows; avoid buying at winner’s curse
- Gann chart reading: Higher top, higher bottom = strong (buy breakouts); lower tops, lower bottoms = weak (avoid or sell)
- Real estate: Quality in good locations; “people need somewhere to live” keeps real estate in good locations from crashing hard
- Post-2026 planning: Be in real assets, not cash; monitor land price indicators (not just stock market) for cycle turn
Notable Quotes
“The one thing I learned when I wrote all of those chapters, I just saw the real estate cycle found a way to repeat and repeat on time, all the time, at least up to when I’d finished the book.” — Phil Anderson
“Donald Trump, bless his heart, in 2016 forced us all to move on. The one thing I learned from my book…the real estate cycle found a way to repeat and repeat on time.” — Phil Anderson
“You have to have some sort of risk management. If you want to be successful going forward, without question, I think the best thing you can ever learn to do is to manage risk.” — Phil Anderson