BBI September 2022 Q&A — Boom Bust Insiders
Summary
September 2022 session as markets head into a volatile autumn. Akhil surveys property market resilience globally (UK, US, Australia) despite rising rates and negative news. Phil is emphatic: “back to normal” after the post-Cold War peace dividend. Key topics include China’s potential digital yuan and what it could mean for capital flows, the 1990s historical parallel to current cycle position, UK monetary situation, and the debate over whether mid-cycle slowdown is over (both Akhil and Phil confirm yes — mid-cycle ended, second half underway).
Key Claims
| Claim | Confidence |
|---|---|
| The mid-cycle slowdown is definitively over; second half of the cycle is underway | High |
| UK eliminating mortgage stress tests is a clear second-half credit expansion signal | High |
| ”World war” would disrupt the cycle only if the economy is more focused on fighting than speculating — not the case | High |
| China’s potential digital yuan could allow unprecedented capital flow tracking and redirection | Medium |
| Post-2026 land price collapse will be catastrophic for China Belt and Road Initiative debtors | Medium |
| 2022 is a “year ending in two” disaster — historical pattern without exception | High |
Predictions / Forecasts
| Forecast | Target Date | Status |
|---|---|---|
| October 2022 will bring another market low (possibly double bottom or lower low that fails to sustain) | Oct 2022 | Confirmed |
| After October low, markets will rally into year-end | Q4 2022 | Confirmed |
| Yield curve inversion will NOT produce a real recession this cycle | 2022–2023 | Confirmed |
| Post-2026 Chinese land price collapse → Belt and Road defaults → potential wider conflict | Post-2026 | Pending |
| If Digital Yuan implemented well, China could become extremely wealthy via managed capital flows | Long-term | Pending |
Market Calls & Cycle Position Analysis
- Phil: October 6–10 window for important low; then midpoint of midpoint → up into November
- Second half of the 18.6-year cycle = military spending boom, credit expansion, bank profits, speculation
- “Delicious” scenario: yield curve inverts but no recession, then at 2026 Fed says “we handled it before” — sets up the biggest shock
- China property stabilizing but government trying to shift from property-led to consumption-led model (like Japan 1980s)
- Australian property prices misleadingly low due to higher-priced homes not being listed
Property & Stock Guidance
- UK banks: Look for breaks above 52-week highs
- Virgin UK (VUK): Listed in Australia; earnings doubled in last quarter; gap-up on breakout — bullish signal
- Australian banks: REITs bottomed in September before the wider market → leading indicator
- UK homebuilders: Still constrained; wait for financing to ease
- China stocks: Government encouraging equity investment as alternative to property — watch for bubble dynamics
Notable Quotes
“It it it’s going to be delicious now if we got a nice inversion, but no real recession. That’s what the cycle does, it does everything different to confuse you.” — Phil Anderson
“Nobody everywhere in the world…because they will be able to say, remember last time back in 2022, we had things under control. We engineered a reasonable response and it worked. So everybody will say, oh yes, okay, that’s probably right. It’s after 2026, if and when land price does turn down, that’s when you do need to panic.” — Akhil Patel