Summary
Phil Anderson reviews the end-of-June 2022 market selloff, noting it as the worst start for stocks since 1962, and validates the PSE 2022 Roadmap’s January forecast of a high around mid-March followed by a low at end June / early July. He cautions subscribers against rushing back into the market, citing the 20 and 60-year curves suggesting lows could persist for several months, while flagging a potential substantial year-end rally and new bull market based on the NASDAQ curve.
Key Claims
- The 2022 Roadmap (issued 14 January 2022) forecast a stock market high around mid-March, trending down to a low end June / early July — this played out as described — confidence: high
- Years ending in ‘2’ historically show a pattern of lower prices at some point during the year — confidence: medium
- The 20 and 60-year cycles suggest lows may persist for several months from early July 2022 — confidence: medium
- The NASDAQ curve was forecast weaker than the Dow, with lows/sideways movement persisting further into 2022 before a potential substantial year-end rally — confidence: medium
- Cash is not a viable long-term alternative to being invested in the market — confidence: high
- W.D. Gann rediscovered principles long known by ancient civilisations through observation of stars and planets — confidence: low (editorial/philosophical claim)
- The worst first-half stock performance since 1962 (excluding that year) occurred in H1 2022 — confidence: high (attributed to Bloomberg/John Authers)
Mex Pete References
None.
Stock Picks / Signals
None. Phil notes stock specifics will be covered in a subsequent email.
Predictions / Forecasts
- Low period extended: 20 and 60-year curves indicate market lows could persist for several months from early July 2022 — timeframe: H2 2022
- NASDAQ: Sideways/low movement expected to persist further into 2022 than the Dow, followed by a fairly substantial year-end rally and the start of a new bull market — timeframe: late 2022
- Implied guidance: No rush to buy back into the market quickly as of early July 2022
Notable Quotes
“The (stock market) curves suggest a high around mid March, trending down after that to a low end June / early July.” — PSE 2022 Roadmap, page 23, issued 14 January 2022
“W.D. Gann was a true genius. I’m prepared to suggest possibly the smartest man who ever lived.” — Phil Anderson