Summary
Phil Anderson analyses the divergence between the Nasdaq and the Dow in the wake of the May 20 2022 low, arguing the Dow’s relative strength (not yet retracing 38% of the 2020–2022 rally) remains bullish for the longer-term cycle into 2026. He outlines a near-term roadmap for US markets through end-June 2022 and notes Australian markets face continued seasonal weakness through June before a likely early-July bounce.
Key Claims
- The May 20 2022 low had the emotional hallmarks of a possible yearly low (panic, front-page coverage, pundit capitulation) — confidence: medium
- The Dow had not yet retraced 38% of the 2020 low-to-January-2022-top move as of this date, which Anderson reads as longer-term bullish — confidence: high
- Tech (Nasdaq) will remain weaker than the general market heading into 2026 — confidence: medium
- Big tech may increasingly move into real estate, lending, and financial sectors to compensate for weaker equity returns — confidence: low
- End-June / early July 2022 market pressure was anticipated in the prior 2022 Roadmap and remains consistent with the evolving picture — confidence: medium
- Australian markets face seasonal weakness through June (tax-loss selling) with lows expected end-June and a bounce expected early July — confidence: high
- US markets expected to trend broadly sideways into October 2022 after the June–July pressure zone — confidence: medium
Mex Pete References
None.
Stock Picks / Signals
None.
Predictions / Forecasts
- Down into Friday (week of 10 June 2022), then up into mid-June Gann date, then a retest of the May 20 lows into end-June — framed as a suggested near-term Nasdaq path, not a firm forecast
- End-June / early July flagged as a pressure zone — consistent with prior 2022 Roadmap
- 30 weeks from the Nasdaq high (late 2021) and 6 months from the Dow top (5 January 2022) both converge around end-June 2022
- If the May 20 Nasdaq low fails to hold, further tech sector panic expected
- US markets broadly sideways into October 2022 thereafter
Notable Quotes
“The recent low on May 20 had all the hallmarks of a possible yearly low: significant emotion on the day, (panic even), markets on the front pages of most newspapers, pundits who don’t study the land market suggesting serious collapse is coming and everybody asking the richest people what they think. (As if they’d know.)”
“The Dow action at present is really bullish longer term, assuming it continues to hold well above that 50% retracement level indicated in the respective chart.”