Summary
Akhil Patel presents historical data on stock market gains during the second half of the real estate cycle across three prior cycles (1962–73, 1982–90, 2002/3–2007), showing average gains of 150–300% from mid-cycle low to cycle peak. Projected against 2022 mid-cycle lows, this implies 40–149% additional upside in major indices by 2026.
Key Claims
- Second half of the cycle average gains: Dow 160%, UK 183%, Australia 154%, Japan 326%, Germany 217%, France 267%, Canada 162%
- No prior cycle example where a major index failed to roughly double from mid-cycle low to peak
- Projected 2026 peak targets: Dow ~47,535, UK ~13,850, Australia ~11,181, Japan ~69,647
- From 2022 levels, this implies 41–149% further upside still to go
- If 2022 low is higher than 2020/2021 lows, US markets likely up all decade
- Could mirror Roaring 1920s where stock markets continued past the 1926 land price peak until 1929
- Report referenced: “Welcome to the Jazz Age” — 18-year breakout pattern in US markets suggests further upside into next cycle
- “Markets climb walls of worry” — PSE’s cycle advantage is knowing the bigger picture when news is all doom and gloom