Summary
Akhil Patel analyzes why gold has not surged despite high inflation and the Ukraine war, explaining gold’s negative correlation with real bond yields. He concludes gold will decline further from its April 2022 level, setting up a buying opportunity before its real run into the cycle peak around 2026.
Key Claims
- Gold gained $300 in early 2022 but formed a double top at the August 2020 high and reversed
- Gold is negatively correlated with real bond yields — when real yields rise, gold falls
- Real 10-year yields turned up from their -1% low in 2020; now approaching positive territory
- Strong US dollar adds additional headwind to gold prices
- Gold is expected to decline further from April 2022 — the low will be a good buying opportunity
- Gold’s real time to shine is the run-up to the cycle peak (2026) and the banking panic aftermath
- Pattern from last cycle: gold surged between 2008 and 2011 after the real estate crash
- Expect a similar gold surge in the run-up to 2026 and one to two years after