Summary
Phil Anderson examines the inversion of the yield curve in April 2022, placing this widely-watched recession indicator within the context of the real estate cycle. He explains why the yield curve inversion does not necessarily signal an imminent crash given where we are in the longer cycle.
Key Claims
- US yield curve inverted in early April 2022, triggering widespread recession fears
- The yield curve is only one indicator; it must be interpreted within the real estate cycle
- At this stage of the cycle, yield curve inversions are a feature, not a terminal signal
- Central banks (Fed) are behind the curve again — raising rates too late
- Rising rates and geopolitical pressures create mid-cycle volatility, not cycle end