Summary
Written on the March 21 equinox (which Phil Anderson treats as the true new year), this email reviews Dow price action from late 2021 through March 21, 2022, assessing how the 2022 Roadmap held up against the Ukraine invasion disruption. Phil notes that seasonal turn dates have so far produced mid-range price returns rather than clean directional signals, and updates his outlook for the remainder of 2022 based on the blue (2nd half real estate cycle) and grey (20/60-year) Dow curves.
Key Claims
- The Dow and Nasdaq topped broadly as expected in late 2021, with the Nasdaq topping first — confidence: high
- The expected sector rotation from tech into banking and real estate occurred in the second half of 2021 and into early 2022, consistent with second-half real estate cycle patterns — confidence: high
- Putin’s invasion of Ukraine caught markets by surprise and disrupted the expected banking/real estate stock rally in mid-February — confidence: high
- Key market turn dates of Jan 10, Feb 9, and March 8 align with 30-degree Gann time counts — confidence: medium
- Seasonal and mid-seasonal dates produced mid-range price returns on both Feb 3 and March 21 (circled on chart), making directional signals unclear — confidence: high
- The blue (2nd half real estate cycle) and grey (20/60-year) Dow curves both suggest continued Dow buoyancy into May 2022, followed by weakness into August and October — confidence: medium
- The red (10/20/30/40-year) and black (all-years) curves suggesting a 1932/1942-style collapse are considered unlikely to materialise — confidence: medium
- Markets began pricing in higher interest rate benefits for banks before the news was public, with banking stocks rising in January ahead of February earnings reports — confidence: high
Mex Pete References
None.
Stock Picks / Signals
None. Phil notes specific stocks will be addressed in a follow-up email.
Predictions / Forecasts
- Dow likely to see further buoyancy into May 2022, potentially a higher high than January (uncertain)
- Weakness expected into August 2022, with a further weak period in October 2022
- A catastrophic 1932/1942-style Dow collapse in 2022 considered very unlikely
- Banking and real estate sectors expected to continue being sought as buys following the March 8 reversal
Notable Quotes
“Our seasonal and mid seasonal dates so far have not at all been helpful… When that happens, I am yet to find a way that the market in question then tells you what it’s going to do next. It simply says markets have come back to balance.”
“It would take a particularly mighty event after May for us to see a shape that the red and black lines suggest. I can’t see this happening but of course I could be wrong.”