Summary
Session responds to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (Feb 24, 2022). Phil: interest rate rises good — brings forward real estate buying (fear of future higher rates). German rearmament, Japan rearming = massive spending. Sanctions against Russia demonstrated US can confiscate reserve assets = China and others now diversifying away from dollars. Phil: markets caught by surprise because most expected Russia wouldn’t actually invade. Key turning points noted: Jan 28, Feb 24, March 7-8. Markets heading to midpoint from Jan top and March lows = March 21 likely midpoint reversal. Phil and Akhil discuss “Great Game” (resource/land control between great powers). Investment strategy for end of cycle: own home, reduce leverage, prepare for ±20% housing decline, keep cash, look at shorting on the way down. Health as priority #1. Commodity cycle likely to have big peak.
Key Claims
- Russia’s invasion of Ukraine forced markets to reprice rapidly — demonstrates importance of studying Gann time counts. — confidence: high
- Russian military shown to be much weaker than feared — good for markets climbing wall of worry. — confidence: high
- US sanctions demonstrated they can confiscate reserve assets → China and others diversifying away from dollars. — confidence: high
- Military spending: Germany, Japan, Australia all increasing = bullish for manufacturing/commodities. — confidence: high
- Rate rises bring forward real estate purchases (fear of future higher rates) = bullish for cycle completion. — confidence: high
- Akhil: “Great Game” — US and China maneuvering over resources and markets = inevitable conflict. — confidence: high
- Phil: own your home, reduce leverage 20%, keep cash, prepare for short strategies. — confidence: high
Predictions / Forecasts
- March 21, 2022 midpoint reversal in markets. — status: confirmed (market bottomed around then)
- Commodities to have substantial peak, then bottom falls out. — status: pending
- After 2026: US crypto ban possible (repeat of 1933 gold confiscation executive order). — status: pending
Concepts Referenced
Notable Quotes
“If you’ve been following me for a while, you’ll know that I wrote my K-Wave document back in 1995, 30 years ago. I’ve been quite clear for several decades that we’d get a massive arms buildup into 2026.”
“For people who are most heavily in debt, they will be hurt the most. Number one priority: do not get carried away with what everybody else is doing.”
“Prioritize your health. Things are going to get volatile, probably stressful. You want to be focused on good health.”