Summary
Akhil’s mid-year roadmap update: 2021 roadmap on track with strong H1 as forecast and the Dow stopping at the first week of May high. Seasonal June 21/22 date produced a brief correction. Markets now at an interesting juncture — Dow Transportation diverging from Industrials (a potential warning sign). Notes the Nikkei peaked in February (interesting divergence). Summary: either sideways through late summer/autumn, or one more new high before a meaningful decline.
Key Claims
- 2021 Roadmap forecast of first-week-of-May high and H1 strength has played out. — confidence: high
- Dow Transportation Index diverging from Dow Industrials — a potential warning signal. — confidence: medium
- Nikkei peaked in February 2021 while US markets continued higher. — confidence: high
- Easiest credit conditions in US history pushed markets to all-time highs despite 2020-21 economic difficulties. — confidence: high