Summary
Akhil’s proprietary UK Lead Indicator tracks the cycle and gives advance warning of the end-of-cycle peak. In the second half of the cycle, the indicator rises above a threshold of 1.0. It then falls before recession. The indicator correctly signaled late 1980s and 2005-07 peaks. In 2020, it briefly exceeded threshold but normalized — consistent with mid-cycle recession, not end-of-cycle.
Key Claims
- The PSE Lead Indicator (UK) rises above 1.0 in the second half of the cycle and falls before recession. — confidence: high
- Correctly signaled the late 1980s peak and the 2005-07 pre-GFC peak. — confidence: high
- The 2020 brief exceedance was mid-cycle recession, not end-of-cycle — the indicator has since normalized. — confidence: high