Summary
Phil tracks luxury goods and Australian art sales as cycle indicators. Since the 2012 cycle bottom, luxury goods globally have grown enormously. Australian art sales track the real estate cycle pattern. Hermes (LVMH group) chart: topped out in January 2020, about one month before general markets. Expects record art and luxury goods prices going into 2026.
Key Claims
- Australian art sales track the 18.6-year real estate cycle pattern. — confidence: medium
- Hermes chart topped January 2020 — approximately one month before general market peak. — confidence: high
- Luxury goods and art records going into 2026 would confirm the cycle is peaking. — confidence: medium