Summary
Phil’s “Bliss Index” combines mortgage rates, inflation, and unemployment (summed then subtracted from 100). The higher the index, the better conditions are for land price appreciation. As of March 2021, Australia’s Bliss Index is at its highest level since the 1950s — driven by historic low mortgage rates, low inflation, and reducing unemployment. All the gains from these favorable conditions are captured by land prices.
Key Claims
- The Bliss Index (100 minus sum of mortgage rates + inflation + unemployment) is at historic highs in Australia (March 2021). — confidence: high
- Australia’s Bliss level is the highest since the 1950s. — confidence: high
- All the gains from low rates, low inflation, and low unemployment are captured by land prices. — confidence: high
- We are firmly on the upside of the Kondratieff “5th Wave.” — confidence: high