Summary
Phil reviews US margin debt as a cycle indicator. Stock market peaks rarely occur without elevated margin debt. With the Fed in money-printing mode, margin debt is at high levels. Margin debt usually peaks before recessions but not always obviously at the time. It’s a component of the multi-indicator mix PSE tracks.
Key Claims
- Stock market peaks rarely occur without margin debt at high levels. — confidence: high
- US margin debt was at record levels as of March 2021. — confidence: high
- Margin debt is not a standalone indicator but part of a multi-indicator cycle tracking mix. — confidence: high