Summary
Akhil declares we are now firmly in the second half of the real estate cycle. Recaps: 2019 yield curve inversion predicted recession; COVID was the mid-cycle recession, not end-of-cycle; property and stocks at all-time highs; governments enacting largest-ever stimulus. Second-half markers: sky-high property prices in more regions, 95% LTV mortgages, conspicuous consumption, mega projects. Cites the real estate cycle clock markers table.
Key Claims
- We are now firmly in the second half of the 18.6-year real estate cycle. — confidence: high
- 2019 US yield curve inversion correctly predicted the 2020 recession. — confidence: high
- COVID was the mid-cycle recession — not linked to collapsing land market or excessive credit. — confidence: high
- UK 95% loan-to-value mortgages just announced — a classic second-half cycle measure. — confidence: high
- Property and stock markets at all-time highs globally. — confidence: high
- Second half of cycle sees growth shift from major cities to regional/secondary markets. — confidence: high