Summary
Phil updates the “system clock” (from his 2005 work in “The Secret Life of Real Estate and Banking”) to position the cycle at 12:30-13:00 (“lavish government expenditure”). Biden’s $2.25T infrastructure plan and China’s plan to double its economy by 2035 are cited. The clock’s 20 points come from Homer Hoyt’s 1933 list of how the real estate cycle unfolds, based on George Olcott’s century of Chicago land value records.
Key Claims
- The cycle clock is now at 12:30-13:00: “lavish government expenditure” phase. — confidence: high
- Biden’s $2.25T infrastructure plan and China’s “double the economy by 2035” goal are current cycle indicators. — confidence: high
- The 20-point cycle model is from Homer Hoyt’s 1933 Chicago land study, extended by Phil with 4 stock market points. — confidence: high
- George Olcott recorded every Chicago lot sale from the 1830s until his death — the data foundation for Hoyt’s work. — confidence: high