Summary
Phil argues elections don’t affect the real estate cycle — the cycle has completed regardless of who is in the White House since 1776. The cycle’s violence (boom-bust) is determined by credit creation, not party. Infrastructure spending (funded through borrowing) is the best way to start a real estate speculative frenzy. Links to Akhil’s 2016 Agora Financial piece correctly predicting Trump’s win.
Key Claims
- Since 1776, US elections have not altered the real estate cycle by one iota. — confidence: high
- The cycle’s boom-bust severity is determined by banking credit creation, not political party. — confidence: high
- Infrastructure spending (bond-funded) is the best mechanism to start a real estate speculative frenzy. — confidence: high
- Count cranes and building heights to judge credit creation intensity. — confidence: high