Summary
US, UK, and Australian housing markets are outperforming all other economic sectors during COVID. US forbearance loans dropped from 4.1M in July to 2.97M in October — homeowners returning to work and paying off loans. Australian Commonwealth Bank home loan deferrals down 48%. Non-bank lending in the US has grown 75% since GFC to $52T. PSE reviews US leading indicators showing the 14-year upswing is intact.
Key Claims
- US housing market is “outperforming all other economic sectors in the world” during COVID. — confidence: high
- US forbearance loans dropped from 4.1M (July) to 2.97M (October) — 70% of remaining risk was delinquent pre-COVID. — confidence: high
- Australian Commonwealth Bank home loan deferrals fell 48% from June to October. — confidence: high
- US non-bank lenders have $52T in assets — 75% increase since GFC. — confidence: high
- The 14-year US land price upswing is intact through the COVID mid-cycle period. — confidence: high