Summary
Phil reproduces Akhil’s September 2018 essay on land reclamation projects worldwide as cycle indicators. Monaco’s €2.1B land reclamation (completion 2025), Philippines’ New Manila Bay (407-hectare smart city), Malaysia’s underground-road skyscraper city, and multiple Chinese-led coastal projects are all profiled. A “global sand crisis” is developing as coarse coastal sand runs out. The key insight: when the value of completed buildings exceeds the cost of creating land, land reclamation booms — which is a late-cycle indicator.
Key Claims
- Monaco’s €2.1B land reclamation project (completion 2025) will net developers €3.5B. — confidence: high
- Land reclamation booms occur when building value exceeds land creation costs — a late-cycle indicator. — confidence: high
- A global shortage of coarse coastal sand is developing due to construction demand. — confidence: high
- Dubai sources sand from Australia because desert sand is the wrong type for construction. — confidence: high
- Multiple Asian cities are building from scratch on reclaimed land — all completion dates around 2025-2026. — confidence: high