Summary
Akhil analyzes the Bank of America chart showing US housebuilder stocks recovering far faster than banking stocks off March 2020 lows. He argues housebuilder stocks lead the cycle: in the second half, housebuilders run ahead of banks (as now); at the peak, housebuilders peak first (as in 2006-08). Quotes Homer Hoyt on how the land market enters a “dull phase” after the peak while banks still lend freely. UK house prices up 7% year-on-year; Scotland experiencing a property boom. Australia showing pent-up demand. The next 12 months are an excellent buying opportunity.
Key Claims
- US housebuilder stocks recovering far faster than banks = second half of cycle underway. — confidence: high
- Housebuilder stocks peak first at end of cycle, before banking stocks. — confidence: high
- Now and the next 12 months offer the best property buying opportunity of the decade. — confidence: high
- UK Halifax reports prices up 7% YoY, all regions participating (not just London). — confidence: high
- Homer Hoyt identified the 18-year cycle from Chicago land data in the 1930s. — confidence: high
- The land market enters a “dull phase” just after the peak while banks still lend freely. — confidence: high