Summary
Phil quotes Henry George (1879) on how republican governments decline into despotism when Economic Rent is enclosed. Discusses Henry George’s “Protection or Free Trade” (Milton Friedman’s favorite trade book). Reviews UK property market (RICS reporting “strong momentum, price inflation accelerating sharply”), France’s €100B rescue plan (4x larger than 2008 response), and US federal deficit at $3.3T (16% of GDP). Phil reiterates 2021 will be tough but 2026 cycle completion still on track.
Key Claims
- UK house prices showing “strong momentum with accelerating price inflation” despite COVID. — confidence: high
- France’s €100B rescue plan is 4x the 2008 crisis response (4% of GDP). — confidence: high
- US federal deficit hit $3.3T in 2020 (16% of GDP) — largest since 1945. — confidence: high
- US government debt projected to exceed GDP in 2021, reaching 107% debt-to-GDP ratio by 2023 (highest ever). — confidence: high
- Free trade gains always flow to land value — the part economists leave out. — confidence: high
- 2021 will be a tough year but no deep depression; 2026 cycle completion still expected. — confidence: high