Summary
Phil’s compilation of observations: (1) 25% of UK’s biggest listed companies and 33% of US companies paid out more in dividends/buybacks than they earned in 2019 — a Gann-identified top signal; (2) American Airlines pledging landing slots and brand name for loans after spending all profits on buybacks; (3) Vanguard/Ant Financial joint venture — tech going into financial rent, classic second-half cycle behavior; (4) China investing 228B into Iranian energy/infrastructure to bypass Malacca Strait and USD; (5) Years ending in ‘1’ suggest Trump re-election possibility; (6) A “small war” would kick-start the second half of the cycle.
Key Claims
- Companies paying out more in dividends/buybacks than earnings is a Gann-identified market top signal. — confidence: high
- American Airlines has nothing left to pledge if cycle ends as badly as prior ones. — confidence: medium
- Tech going into financial services is classic second-half-of-cycle behavior. — confidence: high
- China-Iran $228B investment aims to bypass Malacca Strait and USD oil payments. — confidence: high
- Years ending in ‘1’ historically favor incumbent re-election (Trump parallel). — confidence: medium
- A small war would likely end the recession and mark cycle second-half launch. — confidence: medium