Summary
Phil uses Kweichow Moutai (China’s national liquor, world’s most valuable spirits company at ~$290B) as a China economic indicator. Despite a People’s Daily corruption article hitting the stock, Moutai has been on a tear — suggesting Chinese economic news will be positive in the near term. Phil notes the company’s corruption-linked bribery culture and the 2018 arrest of its former chairman.
Key Claims
- Kweichow Moutai chart is trending strongly upward — signals positive Chinese economic news ahead. — confidence: medium
- Moutai (baijiu spirits) has long been used as a vehicle for passing bribes to officials. — confidence: high
- Moutai is the world’s most valuable spirits company at ~$290B, surpassing AB InBev + Diageo + Heineken combined. — confidence: high
- Stocks work 6-9 months ahead of news — strong Moutai chart suggests no major Chinese downturn near-term. — confidence: medium