Summary
Phil responds to The Economist’s claim that COVID-19 marks “a new paradigm” in economics. He argues the opposite: despite 400 years of varying conditions (inflation/deflation, fiat/gold, big/small government), the 18.6-year cycle has continued to repeat because the root cause — enclosed Economic Rent being mortgaged against bank credit — hasn’t changed. More money printing and government intervention just means the next cycle will be even larger and the next bust even more damaging.
Key Claims
- The 18.6-year cycle has persisted through all economic regimes for 400+ years. — confidence: high
- The root cause is unchanged: Economic Rent stays enclosed and is mortgaged against bank credit. — confidence: high
- Each successive cycle is larger than the previous one; each bust is more damaging. — confidence: high
- COVID-19 stimulus (money printing, government borrowing) doesn’t change the cycle — it amplifies the next peak. — confidence: high