Summary
Phil demonstrates how charts predicted the 2019 Australian federal election outcome before the polls did. NIB Holdings (health insurer threatened by Labor policy) held bullish levels despite poll-predicted Labor win. REA Group (real estate listings, threatened by negative gearing policy change) broke upward two days before the election. Markets priced in the Coalition win that “everyone knew” was impossible.
Key Claims
- NIB Holdings held bullish chart levels despite polls predicting a Labor win that would hurt its revenues. — confidence: high
- REA Group broke upward to new highs two days before the May 2019 election — predicting Coalition win. — confidence: high
- Charts price in future outcomes before polls or news acknowledge them. — confidence: high