Summary
Phil explains why the market rebounded after March 2020 despite COVID: (1) markets move to the 50% midpoint after large retracements, especially from seasonal turns; (2) businesses adapted faster than expected — Amazon hired 100K workers, IKEA suffered “less than expected,” UK bosses returned to full pay; (3) land prices haven’t fallen (mid-cycle pattern); (4) lenders allow businesses to substitute 2019 profits for 2020 to avoid debt breaches. The Dow midpoint at ~24,000 is now the oscillation pivot for coming months.
Key Claims
- After extreme sell-offs, markets normally retrace at least to the 50% midpoint. — confidence: high
- The March 2020 seasonal low + 50% retrace pattern was predicted in advance (Sub Email #21). — confidence: high
- Land prices not falling = mid-cycle, not end-of-cycle. This is the key difference others miss. — confidence: high
- Amazon hired 100K workers as orders surged in March 2020. — confidence: high
- European companies used less than 15% of available loan guarantees. — confidence: high
- Wirecard went bankrupt due to accounting fraud — market downturns always expose such behavior. — confidence: high
- Dow midpoint ~24,000 is the oscillation balance point going forward. — confidence: medium