Summary
Phil contrasts media headlines predicting a real estate cliff with actual US market data: homeowners not selling (supply falls with demand), multiple offers above asking price, new home construction plunging (setting up future shortage), mortgage purchase applications rising 6%. Private equity holds $328B in dry powder for real estate. Charts confirm mid-cycle, not end-of-cycle pattern. Phil argues opinions are the “last thing” to bring to markets — read the charts instead.
Key Claims
- US real estate supply fell alongside demand in early 2020, preventing price collapse. — confidence: high
- Houses in some US locations were getting multiple offers above asking price. — confidence: high
- New home construction plunged by record amounts in April 2020, setting up a future housing shortfall. — confidence: high
- Private equity holds $328B in dry powder for real estate globally. — confidence: high
- Charts confirm mid-cycle not end-of-cycle — no protracted recession expected. — confidence: high
- Opinions are the worst thing to bring to markets; charts show the truth. — confidence: high