Summary
Phil uses the “canary in the coal mine” metaphor to describe leading indicators for real estate. Despite COVID-19 fears, Australian capital city house prices rose in April 2020, US mortgage applications increased three weeks in a row, 3D home tours rose 408%, and Genworth Mortgage Insurance (GMA) reported no increase in delinquencies. Phil argues real estate prices are well supported through the crisis and poised to continue rising once lockdowns lift.
Key Claims
- Australian capital city house prices increased in April 2020 despite COVID. — confidence: high
- US mortgage applications rose three weeks in a row in May 2020. — confidence: high
- Genworth Mortgage Insurance (ASX: GMA) reported no increase in delinquencies in Q1 2020. — confidence: high
- History shows mid-cycle slowdowns typically don’t affect land prices, only stocks/economy. — confidence: high
- The March 23 equinox low serves as the benchmark for judging future economic news severity. — confidence: high
- A Singapore HDB flat sold for a new record of S$1.232M in May 2020. — confidence: high