Summary
Brief email from the PSE team linking to a yield curve update PDF. The US yield curve inverted starting June 2019, with further inversions in August–October 2019 and February 2020. The update covers historical patterns to forecast when the next US recession might arrive.
Key Claims
- US yield curve inverted in June 2019 and again August–October 2019 and February 2020. — confidence: high
- Historical yield curve inversions reliably signal coming recessions. — confidence: high