Summary
Phil presents a practical session on reading newspaper headlines as contrarian indicators at cycle turning points. Key insight: emotional headlines (worst fear or best optimism) appear at market tops and bottoms, often on seasonal dates. Uses 2013 examples (Footsie 5-month low on June 25 = bottom; “Boom Britain” August 6 = temporary top). Also discusses how the Flight Plan/Financial Timetable predicted the Feb 2020 market weakness, and advises not to be overly bearish because the second half of the cycle is still ahead.
Key Claims
- Market bottoms and tops often coincide with emotionally loaded newspaper headlines — doing the opposite of the emotion is the trade. — confidence: high
- Seasonal dates are not coincidental — major headlines tend to cluster on Gann seasonal dates (solstices, equinoxes, 45-day points). — confidence: high
- The Flight Plan predicted the Feb 2020 weakness weeks in advance. Coronavirus was the “emotional” event at a seasonal date. — confidence: high
- Distinguishing stock market adjustment (mid-cycle) from real estate cycle is critical — the cycle still has years to run. — confidence: high
- Australia had more cranes operating than the US at time of class (Feb 2020) — indicator of infrastructure build still ongoing. — confidence: medium (anecdote)
- “First week of May 2020 markets likely to make a low” (60 days from the February seasonal date). — confidence: medium
Predictions / Forecasts
- First week of May 2020: likely market low (60-day count from February). — status: confirmed approximately (markets bottomed late March 2020, recovery through May)
- Don’t be overly bearish; the second half of the cycle with infrastructure build is still ahead. — status: confirmed
Notable Quotes
“When the stock market hits the front page, you do the opposite.” “It is not coincidental you’ll see those big headlines come out on seasonal dates.”