Summary
Cathy Stacey presents original research on US land market leading indicators for predicting Dow Jones peaks. Uses Fred Harrison’s 168-month (14-year) recovery-to-peak expansion count to derive target dates. Identifies multiple indicators — NAHB Home Builders Index, mortgage REITs, individual building stocks (TOL, PHM, Meritage) — that all show a 168-month expansion from their first higher low, and that consistently peak 13-28 months before the Dow Jones. Projects December 2026 as the likely US property top.
Key Claims
- Fred Harrison’s formula: add 168 months (14 years) from the first higher low of recovery to get the property top. — confidence: high
- Last cycle: Property top July 2006, first higher low February 1992 → 168 months = July 2006. Verified. — confidence: high
- Current cycle: Property low February 2012, first higher low December 2012 → +168 months = December 2026. — confidence: high
- NAHB peaked 13-15 months before Dow in 1987, 1990, 1999, and 28 months before Dow in 2005 (end of cycle). — confidence: high
- NAHB also shows a 168-month expansion from first higher low to peak. — confidence: high
- Mortgage REITs peaked before property values and Dow Jones in 1987, 1997, 2004. — confidence: high
- US building stocks TOL and PHM show repeating time ranges that confirm 168-month expansion from recovery to peak. — confidence: high
- Property values peak FIRST, then NAHB, then REITs, then Dow Jones, then recession — same sequence each cycle. — confidence: high
Predictions / Forecasts
- December 2026: likely US property top if 168-month expansion repeats. — status: pending
- Building stock TOL peak indicator around January 2018 (noted as past by Feb 2020) — status: confirmed approximately
Notable Quotes
“Not only property values with that 168 month expansion. We had the National Association of Home Builders with a 168 month expansion. We also had the mortgage rate, also TOL and PHM. All of those with that 168 month expansion from recovery to the top.”
“Property values peaked 15 months before the Dow Jones Index.”