Summary
Cathy presents the Australian cycle analysis, comparing Australian All Ordinaries and property data to the US cycle. Key finding: Australia follows the US “same but different” — with some lag. Australian cycle dates from 1916 show consistent 15-20 year patterns. Also covers Gann’s Decennial Cycle for Australia (data back to 1875), a comparison of Sydney vs Melbourne property peaks (7-year cycle from peak to peak), and blockchain-based fractional property ownership (Bricklet) as a potential mechanism for land price to continue rising.
Key Claims
- Australia follows US stock market and property cycle but sometimes lags by months. At end of cycle, Australia does follow the US into the extreme. — confidence: high
- Australian All Ordinaries cycle dates: 1916 bottom → 1921 mid-cycle → 1929 peak → 1931 bottom; 1952 bottom; 1961 mid-cycle; 1969 peak; 1974 bottom; 1982 mid-cycle; 1987 peak; 1992 bottom; 2003 mid-cycle; 2007 peak; 2009 bottom. — confidence: high
- Australian mid-cycle slowdown bottoms consistently in the first half of the decade (1921, 1942, 1961, 1982, 2003). — confidence: high
- Australia peaked at all-time high July 2019 (well behind US). Expected to peak in 2020 or early 2021, then bottom 2021-2022, then join US second half. — confidence: high
- Sydney property: 7-year cycle from peak to peak (1989, 1996, 2003, 2010, 2017). Next peak 2024 — possible inflection point to monitor. — confidence: medium
- Melbourne property: same 7-year cycle but December quarter (vs Sydney’s June quarter). — confidence: medium
- Australian REIT peaked before All Ordinaries in 2007 (Jan 2007 vs Nov 2007). — confidence: high
- Blockchain fractional title ownership (Bricklet, backed by Mirvac and Stockland) could further boost land values. — confidence: speculative
Predictions / Forecasts
- Australia peaks 2020/early 2021, bottoms 2021-2022, then joins second half of cycle. — status: confirmed approximately
- Sydney property next significant inflection ~2024. — status: pending
Notable Quotes
“Australia follows the US, same, same, but different.” “Mid-cycle bottoms are consistently in the first half of the decade: 2003, 1982, 1961, 1942, 1921.”