Summary
Phil references a 2015 FT headline about hedge funds shorting UK property to illustrate that bearish fear is always present but typically wrong during cycle upswings. He reminds subscribers of the “14 years up, 4 down” structure of the real estate cycle, arguing the current cycle has every chance of running the full 14 years. Team research on timing for US, UK, and Australia was being prepared for the Forecast Classes.
Key Claims
- The 18.6-year real estate cycle runs approximately 14 years up, 4 years down. — confidence: high
- Fear and shorting at mid-cycle are typically premature and wrong. — confidence: high
- Low interest rates do not break the 18.6-year cycle pattern. — confidence: high