Summary
Joint event with Phil Anderson and Akhil Patel, November 2019 Melbourne. Hosted by Olga Morales (Astrology for Gann Traders). Phil covers economic rent and earnings concepts using the Jakarta traffic example, plus the origin story of PSE. Akhil delivers a comprehensive presentation of the 18.6-year real estate cycle from historical foundations (Homer Hoyt’s Chicago 100-year study, Fred Harrison UK/US work) through current cycle position, and covers the Dow Jones averaged across 200 years of 18-year segments showing the same cycle structure.
Key Claims
- Phil confirmed independence from Port Phillip Publishing by this event; starting new research service. — confidence: high
- Homer Hoyt’s 100 Years of Land Values in Chicago (1933) showed 18-year cycle in Chicago land prices back to 1832. — confidence: high
- Fred Harrison wrote “Power and the Land” in 1983 forecasting UK/US property peak in 1989-90 — confirmed exactly. — confidence: high
- UK and US had alternating 9-year offset in 19th century (UK peaked 1811, 1828, 1847; US peaked 1818, 1836, 1854). — confidence: high
- Post-WWII both UK and US synchronized → peak 1973, peak 1989, peak 2007. — confidence: high
- Average fall in property values at end of cycle: 35% in real terms globally. — confidence: high
- Akhil: Dow Jones averaged across 200 years of 18-year segments shows same pattern as real estate cycle (slow start, mid-cycle peak, second stronger half, 4-year downturn). — confidence: high
- Excluding 1929’s 90% fall, the average downside looks mild — the real average is much worse. — confidence: high
- Current position (Nov 2019): near end of first expansion, approaching mid-cycle. — confidence: high
- PSE’s “unique proposition”: combining stock market and real estate cycle analysis — no one else does this. — confidence: high
Predictions / Forecasts
- Mid-cycle low coming 2020-2021. — status: confirmed
- Second half of cycle into 2026 peak to follow. — status: pending
Notable Quotes
“As far as I’m aware, there is no one who really puts together stock market cycles and real estate cycles, in the way that we do.” “The average fall in property values at the end of the cycle… is 35% in real terms.”