Summary
Part 2 of the Sydney Oct 2019 event. Phil covers Gann’s Decennial Cycle (years 1-0), his personal India/history origin story, US land sales cycle history, the Java Sea 18.6-year tidal cycle as confirmation of the lunar basis for the real estate cycle, and a detailed Roadmap for 2019 (overlay of years-ending-in-9 with 20/60 year Gann repeat). Ends with an Australia perspective — sufficient land mass means Australia’s cycle is primarily driven by US timing.
Key Claims
- WD Gann’s decade cycle: lows years 1-2-3, break to new highs year 3-4, up year 5, year 7 hiccup, peak year 9, transition year 0. — confidence: high
- 2013 was the real Dow break into new highs — perfectly following Gann’s decade pattern. — confidence: high
- When Dow makes a low in year-0 then sharp correction in year-1 (as happened 2010-11), the decade has historically been very strong all the way through year-9. — confidence: high
- Gann’s “Tunnel Through the Air” (1927) accurately forecast the Dow for five years, cotton prices for 1927, and Pearl Harbor in 1941. — confidence: high (per Phil’s research)
- The Java Sea rises and falls in an 18.6-year cycle (astronomical lunar cycles). US Coast Guard/NASA tracks this. Java Sea currently at bottom, to peak end of 2025. — confidence: high
- 2019 Roadmap: overlay of years-ending-in-9 pointed to a top in July 2019 and another coming late November-December. Phil forecast market peak late December/early January. — confidence: high (confirmed)
- Australia’s property cycle won’t stop on its own — it’s the US cycle that drives the peak. — confidence: high
Predictions / Forecasts
- Market peak late December 2019 / early January 2020 (Trump State of the Union). — status: confirmed
- Java Sea peaks end of 2025 (18.6-year from current trough). — status: pending
Notable Quotes
“Mr. Gann, in his day, took the years from one to zero, a decade of the Dow Jones… and when he overlaid them on top of one another, he found a very interesting thing.” “The Java Sea, unbelievable to my mind, rises and falls in an 18.6-year sequence.”